Choices and decision-making shape our lives, influencing something as simple as appropriateness of language in an essay to whether one should recommend their client to take a million-dollar deal. In most situations we tend to weigh out the pros and cons of each scenario, often contemplating the worst- and best-case situations. For example, let us say your client stands to lose $1000 in a venture but could gain up to $800 million. It seems logical to take the chance as the distribution of outcome has a right skew (a greater gain than loss). However, emotions play an important role in decision making especially when the odds are not as highly skewed as in the above example. Doubt creeps in quite easily. Many tend to question their own judgement and often decide the risk is not worth taking. Think about it, how often have you removed a choice because you were too afraid of taking a risk. Think harder, it is probably more times than you think.
I am an avid tennis player, and before every shot, any player would ask themselves a series of questions. Where do I actually want the ball to go? How hard should I hit it? Should I try and bring my opponent closer to the net, but what if they are strong at the net? Each player must analyse their next shot and execute it, making split-second decisions.
Nevertheless, whenever a person mentions decision making, most think of probability. The most famous example? The extraordinary Monty Hall Problem. Accidently created by Monty Hall in his show Let Us Make A Deal, it is now one of the most popular mathematical paradoxes.
In the Monty Hall problem there are 3 doors, behind one is a car and behind the other two are worthless goats. Monty asks you which door you would like to pick, and you say door 1. Very well knowing what is behind each door, Monty opens door 3, revealing a goat. Now, Monty asks you if you would like to stay with door 1 or switch to door 2. Is it in your favour to switch to door 2?
Kevin Spacey, the Hollywood actor, brilliantly simplifies this in his movie 21.
At the start, the probability of the car being behind door 1 is 1/3. However, when Monty opens door 3 this probability changes. And no, it does not reset to a 50-50 chance. When he opens the third door, he gives the contestant a hidden clue, an extra 33.3% chance of getting a car if you switch. He defines this as a problem of variable change – a complex mathematical concept involving probability distribution.
However, most people would not switch due to apprehension and paranoia. They have the fear that Monty might be bluffing or trying to trick them. Confirmation biases hold them back from switching doors.
One of the most popular examples of probability is gambling. Has anyone played Blackjack, which is also referred to as ’21’ in some regions? This is the ultimate game of rash decision making. For those of you who know how to play, skip over the next paragraph.
When you sit down at the blackjack table, the dealer would hand you two cards. Each number card is worth their value and each face card is worth ten. An ace can be worth 1 or 11, it depends on what value you would prefer. You add up the numbers on your cards. Then the dealer would ask you whether you would like another card. If you take a card, you must add the full number to your total. If your sum is now over twenty-one, then you are bust and out of the game.
How is Blackjack a game of probability then? Well, if you are on seventeen, should you take another card? This is when you read the room, look at what cards were previously dealt and try and calculate the probability of your next card being higher than four.
The choices one has to make in life are no less complex than the game itself.
If you are asked to participate in a bet, you are less likely to participate if there is an equal probability of winning and losing, such as tossing a coin. However, if I skew the data and say that heads makes you win $100 but if it lands on tails then you only lose $50, then the higher incentive motivates you to participate in the bet.
When making life’s decisions, be it getting a new job, buying a house or a car or taking up a course in university, most individuals need a clear upside to gravitate towards (more pros than cons). However, as Robert Frost adequately said …. “Two roads diverged in a wood, and I – I took the one less travelled by, and that has made all the difference.” The merits of your choices are not always clear, and, in most cases, one would never know what the alternative had in store. Life is about accepting those choices and moving on no matter what you picked.
So, when I have to hit that perfect return to a new opponent in a tournament, I should not only focus on my own strengths but continuously learn and adapt to my opponent’s game.
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